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“When it rains, it pours”…or “there’s only thunder when its raining”. You can pick either quote and it can apply to our wonderful weather OR the world of real estate. Making decisions can be very hard especially about large transactions like real estate, but there are market indicators and other ways to help you make your decision: to buy or not to buy? or to sell or not to sell. Whatever you are thinking about see below for your next update!
I believe the largest driver in today’s real estate market is locally related. I don’t think it is the macro environment of bank failures or even high interest rates. While the latter are certainly important, the low inventory of available homes on the market is driving the market. Typically in December and January the market drops because people have other seasonal/family activities on their mind so there is less inventory. However, over the last few years of historically low interest rates and the allure of places like Idaho and a sudden sense of changing homes, those considering selling did it. Essentially, most people who were on the sidelines of selling were faced with the obvious; conditions are perfect to sell. Extremely high market desire that led to huge competition and historically high list prices caused sellers to sell. Buyers saw the low interest rates and since people were home so much during lock downs they wanted something new. I believe, no crystal ball of course, that we are now seeing the repercussions of these conditions. What does it mean for you now? Sellers? Buyers? See below for more specific opinions on what to do NOW.
ONE: If you look at the graph below you will see under absorption rate the value at 1.5 months. We are supposed to be in a slow market or a market that is not strong. However, a 1.5 months absorption rate is a CLEAR indication of a strong seller’s market. Why? Lack of inventory. Simply put there aren’t enough homes on the market for demand. In addition, between March 2021 and March 2022 there were a total of 1,183 homes sold in Camarillo. Between March 2022 and March 2023 there were a total of 872 homes sold in Camarillo; 27% less homes sold. The conclusion is- it is STILL a great time to sell. Finally, for a “real world” scenario, on an average home in Camarillo at the 750k range that is currently listed, it received 12 offers. Any sellers out there?
**This below market summary is Camarillo focused, however, it is indicative of all markets in Ventura County right now. If you have a specific city you would like more information on, let me know.
TWO: Here are the current mortgage rates over the last few months.
If you are in the market there are ALWAYS deals to be made. About 4 years ago I had a client who was on the fence with buying. Should he have bought? Yes. He would have made a killing on the rise in equity. Two years ago a different client was considering buying. Should they have bought? Yes. They would also make a killing on the rise in equity. Should you buy today even if its hard? If all the other factors are GOOD then yes. I believe over the long term the equity WILL rise. If you are someone that looks at the market everyday and uses that metric to guide your decisions then buying any real estate may not be for you. There is RISK but over a long enough time frame you WILL make money. Let me know if you want to chat about your options and how to find that good deal.
Rates are high. Yep. Inventory is low. For sure. You may have a life situation and/or you understand that, like the above advice, the sooner you get into the market the sooner your equity will rise and you will make money. As always you should still consider your budget first. While it may frustrate you to pay a high rate, it could still make sense. Do your numbers. This could be a tough time to buy BUT its still an option with some sellers being flexible. It is crucial for you to stay in touch with your realtor for good off market buys AND prepare yourself for a very aggressive offer. In addition, with the low inventory you want to build that relationship so your Realtor thinks about you first when they find something on or off market. Similar to above, while the rates may seem daunting, if you are looking to keep the property for the long term you will increase your equity over a long enough time frame.
Did you read the above? Sellers in certain price ranges and certain areas will get a premium for your home. While this may not apply to every home, in general due to lack of inventory you can get a good price for selling your home and you can still position yourself the right way if you are thinking about selling. Preparing your home and positioning yourself with good marketing can set you up for success. Talk with me to decide if its right for you.
If you liked these stats please reach out and let me know about it! If you have any questions about the Real Estate market or the process of buying or selling a home please contact me. Contact me today if you are ready to buy or sell a home.
*********If you are receiving this email for the first time-congratulations! You were added to the list since my last post! I would love to chat with you about any of your real estate needs. If you wish to be removed, no worries, just follow the procedure at the bottom of this email. If you have any questions or would like more specific stats let me know.
1297 Flynn Rd Suite 150 Camarillo, CA 93012
FTBS- Certified First Time Home Buyer Specialist
SRES- Senior Real Estate Specialist