A pattern is by nature predictable. If you look at the first graph below you will see that the last 6 years or so have been predictable based on the pattern of the seasons. In the years 2009-2011, however, there was a dramatic amount of homes for sale. Will our current 6 year pattern be broken due to the changing market, political issues and the changing financial status of our country and state? OR will the pattern continue? To figure this out we can look at other statistics like the Months of Inventory. This stat dictates a “seller’s market” or a “buyer’s market”. Higher Months of Inventory dictates a buyer’s market because there aren’t enough buyers for the number of homes on the market. 2018 brought the highest Months of Inventory since 2013 and 2014. It is trending that direction, and if it continues to rise we will see a clear market shift into a buyer’s market. This will dramatically influence all real estate buyers and sellers. Remember, great deals happen before everyone else knows what is going on. Keep an eye on this market, if you are considering a real estate move soon.
Based on the below stats, please review the following ideas to help guide your decisions:
IF you can find an under market value property, it is always a great time to buy. However, to buy, fix and flip can be much higher risk. If you are going to buy a single family home or condo on market to invest, you MUST know the area very well to determine if it is in a pocket that is highly desirable. In addition, lease demands are lower than last month and rates have been going up. A careful evaluation of what your monthly mortgage will be and your future monthly rental income would reveal what your best option is.
If the trend continues, there will be more homes for sale with less buyers which can give buyers more advantage and possibly lower prices. Prices are still high in some areas, so careful research is critical. Buying during the holidays can be unique and you CAN get some good deals because most people don’t want to go through the hassle of moving during the holidays. Rates are slowly climbing, but are still overall quite low. Are you prepared? Have you spoken with your mortgage professional to clearly understand what you can qualify for? Do you fully know your monthly budget? Doing these tasks can prepare you for when the time is right.
Now is still a good time to sell, but inventory definitely went up. There will be a month or two of lower inventory that you can take advantage of before the spring and summer. Selling during the holidays may be a good idea as you may get lucky due to an overall slow down of inventory.
**This advice is only a small part of your Real Estate strategy. Please let me know if you would like a comprehensive review of your goals to best help you make a sound decision.
Ventura County Sales Statistics from 2009-Present
Ventura County Monhts of Inventory Statistics from 2009-Present
Camarillo Housing Market
Ventura City Housing Market
Oxnard Housing Market
If you liked these stats please reach out and let me know about it! If you have any questions about the Real Estate market or the process of buying or selling a home please contact me.